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5. The New Millennium, the European Monetary Union and the Pope Cargo cults, a kind of religious millenarian movement, have been present in Papua New Guinea since first contact with Europeans. There is now a substantial published literature on the subject. Cargo cults flourish in times of crisis. They include elements of protest, of adaptation to, and of self- assertion in, a rapidly changing world. They can be seen as desperate attempts to make odd ends meet: that is to explain by traditional means the changes imposed from the outside, to incorporate those changes into the existing cultural matrix and to participate in the benefits of western economy. They form an underlying ideological stratum shared by rural societies in Papua New Guinea, while the niche previously occupied by colonial rulers is now occupied by native and urban expatriate elites. Since Papua New Guinea is not a country of well-educated townsmen, but of semi-literate villagers, with limited access to the transnational and international flow of ideas and thoughts, it just takes an appropriate trigger to release millenarian activity. There are indications from many parts of Papua New Guinea, that the cargo and millenarian ideas are being refuelled by the approaching millennium. This event is considered special, not only by the Catholic Church which has declared the year 2000 to be a Jubilee year, but also by non-clerical expatriates and members of the urban elites. Moreover, the presence of logging and mining operations in many parts of the coun-try provides the rural population with ample justification for feelings of crisis, resentment and change. The situation is aggravated by dissemination of misinformation. For example, the European Monetary Union is predicted to encompass the whole world, rendering the local currency, the Kina, obsolete and allowing the Pope (a European) to take over the one-world government. Such events are interpreted as fulfilling old testament prophecies. American radical preachers are especially active in linking Europe to the rule of the Antichrist which will precede the second coming of Christ (and the end of the world). Their publications are available in the many religious bookshops in PNG and their ideas are subsequently carried to the rural areas by visitors from the towns. An example: Morris Cerullo (666 by 1999? Beware the Exploding Global Economy! , San Diego 1991) sees the EEC as "the world's largest and richest economy" (p.11), and claims that a single EEC currency, "is prophetically significant because in Revelations, Chapter 13. we are told that there will be a resurgence of the ancient Roman Empire, which existed at the time of Christ's First Coming. This new Roman Empire will be in existence at Christ's Second Coming. The new United States of Europe will be like that ancient Roman Empire." (p.12). And further, "Chancellor Kohl has stated: 'We Germans want to expand the EEC into a European Union. Our core objective is, and will continue to be, Europe's political unification.' The ultimate result of this objective will be the establishment of a unified Europe which will lead the world under the rule of the Antichrist to its greatest glory, and ultimately, to its greatest catastrophe."(pp.13-14). He concludes: "Part-tner, mark my words: The European Community (EEC) is destined by God's endtime plan to emerge as the leading world power of the 21st Century." (p.15). Such rhetoric contributes to syncretistic local expectations for the turn of the millennium, and these expectations do, of course, influence decisions made concerning logging or mining. That is, those operations which bring large-scale changes to rural environments may be seen by villagers as cataclysmic necessities (Catholics) preceding the one-world government by the Pope, of which they will benefit; or as being of no concern at all as there is no future beyond 2000 (radical denominations). Thus, rural expectations for the turn of the millennium may have serious consequences for the state of the country and its resources after the year 2000. Indeed, the range of efforts made to stop the depletion of Papua New Guinea's natural resources, such as the promotion of small-scale business, cash-cropping, portable sawmills or landowner awareness programmes, may in some areas be wrongly focused. For instance in rural East Sepik Province "Assembly of God church members have been quite literally banking on Christ's return in 2000 and the subsequent destruction of the world by fire. People reason that cutting the forest was a good way to generate income for the duration since it would all be destroyed anyway. There is also a very fatalistic view of the environment and general economic security - both are believed to be 'up to God's will' and quite beyond human control." (Jolene Stritecky, personal communication). Malaysian logging firms have already taken advantage of such attitudes and are using the notion of the imminent end of the world to obtain landowner consent for their operations (e.g., with Kasua people of Southern Highland Province, Florence Brunois, personal communication). At Enga, many people see no sense in planting perennial crops such as coffee or pandans, crops which take several years to bear fruit, and

6. Drought in PNG Linked to the El Niño phenomenon, the current weather pattern that has caused extensive and abnormal drought conditions throughout Southeast Asia and Australia is particularly affecting the island of New Guinea. The nation Papua New Guinea, occupying the eastern half of this island, is being especially hard hit. Most of its people live in rural areas and rely on subsistence economy. Normally Papua New Guinea is a rather wet and cloudy country and so subsistence agriculture is geared to these climatic conditions. Staple crops can tolerate some dry conditions but cannot survive prolonged dry spells. This situation has been made worse by frosts earlier this year which, in the higher altitudes, destroyed the sweet potato crop. At present more than 650,000 people (of a total population of 3.9 million) are being fed by government and foreign aid organisations. And, while rains are due soon this number will increase because no new gardens could be planted during the drought. Meteorologists predict that this dry wea- ther will continue. This means that people living in lowland areas will also be affected. There they rely on the sago palm but this requires much water to extract the starch from its pulp. The situation is being aggravated by several drought-related factors Water: Drinking water is running low in many rural areas. People have to walk for miles to fetch drinking water and sources are often polluted. Old people and babies are dying from related diseases such as typhoid. Foods: There are reports from the worst affected areas of people dying from eating unsuitable wild foods. Fire: Papua New Guinea growers usually burn dry vegetation in the dry season before establishing new gardens. Many of these fires have gone out of control and large areas are engulfed in clouds of thick smoke. In some areas the fires have swept into primary forests which are a major tourist attraction. Mt Wilhelm, the 4502 m high protected wildlife area is now ablaze. Fires have also des- troyed remaining food gardens, tree crops and dwellings. Smog: Problems are not restricted to direct fire damage. Thick smoke clouds are causing increasing respira-tory diseases and killing wildlife (a recent Internet message speaks of dead arboreal marsupials being found on the forest floor). Smog has also caused poor vibility and air traffic has been suspended in many parts of the country with the more remote parts of the country being cut off. This smog is not merely the result of local fires. Huge smoke clouds generated elsewhere in the southeast Asia are now drifting south and westwards over New Guinea and northern Australia. The Infrastructure is also being badly hit. Water levels in the hydropower dams are low and power interruptions in the provincial centres are frequent. The capital is facing power and water rationing. Many schools and aid posts are being forced to close. There is no water left in the storage tanks and food is no longer available. The AAID (Australian Agency for International Development) drought assessment report estimates that approximately 50% of all community schools were closed by October because of pupilsí lack of stamina and the need to search for food and water (Allen & Bourke, p.3). According to recent government reports (The National 14.11.97), 6.4 Million Kina (about £2.56 million ) is required every month to feed the population in the worst affected areas. Australia presently contributes about Aus$ 4 million per month in direct relief, however, supply flights by the Australian Defence Force are being hampered by the smog. If it is to foot the bill, the government will have to impose a freeze on new projects and slash the size of the public service next year. Moreover, if the dry weather conditions continue into 1998, the government is expected to lose more than 164 million Kina (£65.6 million) in revenue from the agricultural sector. In short, Papua New Guinea faces its most serious natural crisis in recent history. In brief Drought in Papua New Guinea has the following consequences: sanitary: lack of drinking water; food: reduction of foodstuffs; socio-economic: isolation of the country due to the suspension of air traffic, water and energy rationing, closing of schools, loss in revenue from the agricultural sector. by Christin Kocher-Schmid

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